Indikator Makroekonomi dan Kinerja Ekspor Halal di Indonesia: Analisis Empiris Eksploratif (2019–2025)
Macroeconomic Indicators and Halal Export Performance in Indonesia: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis (2019–2025)
Keywords:
Halal export; macroeconomic indicators; economic growth; inflation; IndonesiaAbstract
This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and halal export performance in Indonesia during the 2019–2025 period. Specifically, it investigates the relationships of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) net inflows with halal exports. Using annual secondary data, the study employs descriptive statistical analysis, Pearson correlation, and exploratory Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The results indicate that Indonesian halal exports experienced considerable fluctuations but increased overall from IDR 526.19 trillion in 2019 to IDR 1,045.74 trillion in 2025. Correlation analysis reveals a positive relationship between real GDP and halal exports, whereas inflation and FDI net inflows exhibit negative relationships. The main OLS model produces corresponding coefficients of 0.9951 for real GDP, −0.0065 for inflation, and −0.4954 for FDI. However, none of these coefficients is statistically significant, and the model is not jointly significant. These findings suggest that macroeconomic indicators alone do not sufficiently explain Indonesia's halal export performance during the observed period. Given the limited number of observations, the results should be interpreted as preliminary empirical evidence rather than definitive conclusions. Further research using longer time series and more industry-specific indicators is needed to provide a more comprehensive understanding of halal export dynamics.
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